Tag Archives: Populations and Evolution

Beyond Mediocrity: How Common is Life? [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2305.05395


The probability that life spontaneously emerges in a suitable environment (abiogenesis) is one of the major unknowns in astrobiology. Assessing its value is impeded by the lack of an accepted theory for the origin of life, and is further complicated by the existence of selection biases. Appealing uncritically to some version of the “Principle of Mediocrity” — namely, the supposed typicality of what transpired on Earth — is problematic on empirical or logical grounds. In this paper, we adopt a Bayesian statistical approach to put on rigorous footing the inference of lower bounds for the probability of abiogenesis, based on current and future evidence. We demonstrate that the single datum that life has appeared at least once on Earth merely sets weak constraints on the minimal probability of abiogenesis. In fact, the {\it a priori} probability assigned to this event (viz., optimistic, pessimistic or agnostic prior) exerts the strongest influence on the final result. We also show that the existence of a large number of habitable worlds does not necessarily imply, by itself, a high probability that life should be common in the universe. Instead, as delineated before, the choice of prior, which is subject to uncertainty (i.e., admits multiple scenarios), strongly influences the likelihood of life being common. If habitable worlds are uncommon, for an agnostic prior, a deterministic scenario for the origin of life might be favoured over one where abiogenesis is a fluke event.

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A. Balbi and M. Lingam
Wed, 10 May 23
23/65

Comments: 7 pages, 2 figures. Published in MNRAS

A Biotic Habitable Zone: Impacts of Adaptation in Biotic Temperature Regulation [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10052


The search for biosignatures necessitates developing our understanding of life under different conditions. If life can influence the climate evolution of its planet then understanding the behaviour of life-climate feedbacks under extreme conditions is key to determine the ‘edges’ of the habitable zone. Additionally understanding the behaviour of a temperature limited biosphere will help towards formulating biosignature predictions for alien life living under conditions very different to those on Earth. Towards this aim, we extend the ‘ExoGaia Model’ – an abstract model of microbial life living on a highly simplified 0-dimensional planet. Via their metabolisms, microbes influence the atmospheric composition and therefore the temperature of the planet and emergent feedback loops allow microbes to regulate their climate and maintain long term habitability. Here, we adapt the ExoGaia model to include temperature adaptation of the microbes by allowing different species to have different temperature ‘preferences’. We find that rather than adapting towards the planet’s abiotic conditions the biosphere tends to more strongly influence the climate of its planet, suggesting that the surface temperature of an inhabited planet might be significantly different from that predicted using abiotic models. We find that the success rate for microbial establishment on planets is improved when adaptation is allowed. However, planetary abiotic context is important for determining whether overall survival prospects for life will be improved or degraded. These results indicate the necessity to develop an understanding of life living under different limiting regimes to form predictions for the boundaries of the habitable zone.

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A. Nicholson and N. Mayne
Mon, 20 Mar 23
7/51

Comments: N/A

The TAP equation: evaluating combinatorial innovation in Biocosmology [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2204.14115


We investigate solutions to the TAP equation, a phenomenological implementation of the Theory of the Adjacent Possible. Several implementations of TAP are studied, with potential applications in a range of topics including economics, social sciences, environmental change, evolutionary biological systems, and the nature of physical laws. The generic behaviour is an extended plateau followed by a sharp explosive divergence. We find accurate analytic approximations for the blow-up time that we validate against numerical simulations, and explore the properties of the equation in the vicinity of equilibrium between innovation and extinction. A particular variant, the two-scale TAP model, replaces the initial plateau with a phase of exponential growth, a widening of the TAP equation phenomenology that may enable it to be applied in a wider range of contexts.

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M. Cortês, S. Kauffman, A. Liddle, et. al.
Tue, 10 Jan 23
57/93

Comments: 8 pages, 13 figures, companion to arXiv:2204.09378 and arXiv:2204.09379 (simultaneous release) for development of field of Biocosmology. Develops mathematical formalism used in arXiv:2204.09378; v2: updating title for context

A Gaian Habitable Zone [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2301.02150


When searching for inhabited exoplanets, understanding the boundaries of the habitable zone around the parent star is key. If life can strongly influence its global environment, then we would expect the boundaries of the habitable zone to be influenced by the presence of life. Here using a simple abstract model of tangled-ecology' where life can influence a global parameter, labelled as temperature, we investigate the boundaries of the habitable zone of our model system. As with other models of life-climate interactions, the species act to regulate the temperature. However, the system can also experiencepunctuations’, where the system’s state jumps between different equilibria. Despite this, an ensemble of systems still tends to sustain or even improve conditions for life on average, a feature we call Entropic Gaia. The mechanism behind this is sequential selection with memory which is discussed in detail. With this modelling framework we investigate questions about how Gaia can affect and ultimately extend the habitable zone to what we call the Gaian habitable zone. This generates concrete predictions for the size of the habitable zone around stars, suggests directions for future work on the simulation of exoplanets and provides insight into the Gaian bottleneck hypothesis and the habitability/inhabitance paradox.

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R. Arthur and A. Nicholson
Fri, 6 Jan 23
21/55

Comments: N/A

Community Report from the Biosignatures Standards of Evidence Workshop [IMA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.14293


The search for life beyond the Earth is the overarching goal of the NASA Astrobiology Program, and it underpins the science of missions that explore the environments of Solar System planets and exoplanets. However, the detection of extraterrestrial life, in our Solar System and beyond, is sufficiently challenging that it is likely that multiple measurements and approaches, spanning disciplines and missions, will be needed to make a convincing claim. Life detection will therefore not be an instantaneous process, and it is unlikely to be unambiguous-yet it is a high-stakes scientific achievement that will garner an enormous amount of public interest. Current and upcoming research efforts and missions aimed at detecting past and extant life could be supported by a consensus framework to plan for, assess and discuss life detection claims (c.f. Green et al., 2021). Such a framework could help increase the robustness of biosignature detection and interpretation, and improve communication with the scientific community and the public. In response to this need, and the call to the community to develop a confidence scale for standards of evidence for biosignature detection (Green et al., 2021), a community-organized workshop was held on July 19-22, 2021. The meeting was designed in a fully virtual (flipped) format. Preparatory materials including readings, instructional videos and activities were made available prior to the workshop, allowing the workshop schedule to be fully dedicated to active community discussion and prompted writing sessions. To maximize global interaction, the discussion components of the workshop were held during business hours in three different time zones, Asia/Pacific, European and US, with daily information hand-off between group organizers.

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V. Meadows, H. Graham, V. Abrahamsson, et. al.
Thu, 27 Oct 22
2/55

Comments: 86 pages, 14 figures, workshop report

Solid grains ejected from terrestrial exoplanets as a probe of the abundance of life in the Milky Way [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.07084


Searching for extrasolar biosignatures is important to understand life on Earth and its origin. Astronomical observations of exoplanets may find such signatures, but it is difficult and may be impossible to claim unambiguous detection of life by remote sensing of exoplanet atmospheres. Here, another approach is considered: collecting grains ejected by asteroid impacts from habitable exoplanets in the Milky Way and then traveling to the Solar System. The optimal grain size for this purpose is around 1 $\mu$m, and about $10^5$ such grains are expected to be accreting on Earth every year, which may contain biosignatures of life that existed on their home planets. These grains may be collected by detectors placed in space, or extracted from Antarctic ice or deep-sea sediments, depending on future technological developments. In the foreseeable future, this is probably the only approach for humankind to search for extrasolar biosignatures by directly sampling biological materials.

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T. Totani
Fri, 14 Oct 22
30/75

Comments: 8 pages, no figure. Submitted for publication

Early Mars' habitability and global cooling by H2-based methanogens [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.04948


During the Noachian, Mars’ crust may have provided a favorable environment for microbial life. The porous brine-saturated regolith would have created a physical space sheltered from UV and cosmic radiations and provided a solvent, while the below-ground temperature and diffusion of a dense reduced atmosphere may have supported simple microbial organisms that consume H2 and CO2 as energy and carbon sources and produce methane as a waste. On Earth, hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was among the earliest metabolisms but its viability on early Mars has never been quantitatively evaluated. Here we present a probabilistic assessment of Mars’ Noachian habitability to H2-based methanogens, and quantify their biological feedback on Mars’ atmosphere and climate. We find that subsurface habitability was very likely, and limited mainly by the extent of surface ice coverage. Biomass productivity could have been as high as in early Earth’s ocean. However, the predicted atmospheric composition shift caused by methanogenesis would have triggered a global cooling event, ending potential early warm conditions, compromising surface habitability and forcing the biosphere deep into the Martian crust. Spatial projections of our predictions point to lowland sites at low-to-medium latitudes as good candidates to uncover traces of this early life at or near the surface.

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B. Sauterey, B. Charnay, A. Affholder, et. al.
Wed, 12 Oct 22
20/75

Comments: N/A

Simulation-based inference of Bayesian hierarchical models while checking for model misspecification [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2209.11057


This paper presents recent methodological advances to perform simulation-based inference (SBI) of a general class of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs), while checking for model misspecification. Our approach is based on a two-step framework. First, the latent function that appears as second layer of the BHM is inferred and used to diagnose possible model misspecification. Second, target parameters of the trusted model are inferred via SBI. Simulations used in the first step are recycled for score compression, which is necessary to the second step. As a proof of concept, we apply our framework to a prey-predator model built upon the Lotka-Volterra equations and involving complex observational processes.

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F. Leclercq
Fri, 23 Sep 22
24/70

Comments: 6 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication as proceedings of MaxEnt’22 (18-22 July 2022, IHP, Paris, France, this https URL). The pySELFI code is publicly available at this http URL and on GitHub (this https URL)

SETI, evolution and human history merged into a mathematical model [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2203.10116


In this paper we propose a new mathematical model capable of merging Darwinian Evolution, Human History and SETI into a single mathematical scheme: 1) Darwinian Evolution over the last 3.5 billion years is defined as one particular realization of a certain stochastic process called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). This GBM yields the fluctuations in time of the number of species living on Earth. Its mean value curve is an increasing exponential curve, i.e. the exponential growth of Evolution. 2) In 2008 this author provided the statistical generalization of the Drake equation yielding the number N of communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy. N was shown to follow the lognormal probability distribution. 3) We call “b-lognormals” those lognormals starting at any positive time b (“birth”) larger than zero. Then the exponential growth curve becomes the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of b-lognormals: this is our way to re-define Cladistics. 4) b-lognormals may be also be interpreted as the lifespan of any living being (a cell, or an animal, a plant, a human, or even the historic lifetime of any civilization). Applying this new mathematical apparatus to Human History, leads to the discovery of the exponential progress between Ancient Greece and the current USA as the envelope of all b-lognormals of Western Civilizations over a period of 2500 years. 5) We then invoke Shannon’s Information Theory. The b-lognormals’ entropy turns out to be the index of “development level” reached by each historic civilization. We thus get a numerical estimate of the entropy difference between any two civilizations, like the Aztec-Spaniard difference in 1519. 6) In conclusion, we have derived a mathematical scheme capable of estimating how much more advanced than Humans an Alien Civilization will be when the SETI scientists will detect the first hints about ETs.

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C. Maccone
Tue, 22 Mar 22
7/82

Comments: N/A

Evo-SETI: A Mathematical Tool for Cladistics, Evolution, and SETI [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2203.10189


The discovery of new exoplanets makes us wonder where each new exoplanet stands along its way to develop life as we know it on Earth. Our Evo-SETI Theory is a mathematical way to face this problem. We describe cladistics and evolution by virtue of a few statistical equations based on lognormal probability density functions (pdf) in the time. We call b-lognormal a lognormal pdf starting at instant b (birth). Then, the lifetime of any living being becomes a suitable b-lognormal in the time. Next, our “Peak-Locus Theorem” translates cladistics: each species created by evolution is a b-lognormal whose peak lies on the exponentially growing number of living species. This exponential is the mean value of a stochastic process called “Geometric Brownian Motion” (GBM). Past mass extinctions were all-lows of this GBM. In addition, the Shannon Entropy (with a reversed sign) of each b-lognormal is the measure of how evolved that species is, and we call it EvoEntropy. The “molecular clock” is re-interpreted as the EvoEntropy straight line in the time whenever the mean value is exactly the GBM exponential. We were also able to extend the Peak-Locus Theorem to any mean value other than the exponential. For example, we derive in this paper for the first time the EvoEntropy corresponding to the Markov-Korotayev (2007) “cubic” evolution: a curve of logarithmic increase.

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C. Maccone
Tue, 22 Mar 22
59/82

Comments: N/A

On possible life-dispersal patterns beyond the Earth [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2202.07347


We model hypothetical bio-dispersal within a single Galactic region using the stochastic infection dynamics process, which is inspired by these local properties of life dispersal on Earth. We split the population of stellar systems into different categories regarding habitability and evolved them through time using probabilistic cellular automata rules analogous to the model. As a dynamic effect, we include the existence of natural dispersal vectors (e.g., dust, asteroids) in a way that avoids assumptions about their agency. By assuming that dispersal vectors have a finite velocity and range, the model includes the parameter of ‘optical depth of life spreading’. The effect of the oscillatory infection rate on the long-term behavior of the dispersal flux, which adds a diffusive component to its progression, is also taken into account. We found that phase space is separated into subregions of long-lasting transmission, rapidly terminated transmission, and a transition region between the two. We observed that depending on the amplitude of the oscillatory life spreading rate, life-transmission in the Galactic patch might take on different geometrical shapes. Even if some host systems are uninhabited, life transmission has a certain threshold, allowing a patch to be saturated with viable material over a long period. Although stochastic fluctuations in the local density of habitable systems allow for clusters that can continuously infect one another, the spatial pattern disappears when life transmission is below the observed threshold, so that transmission process is not permanent in time. Both findings suggest that a habitable planet in a densely populated region may remain uninfected.

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A. Kovacevic
Wed, 16 Feb 22
46/69

Comments: accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology, Cambridge University Press

Studying Bioluminescence Flashes with the ANTARES Deep Sea Neutrino Telescope [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2107.08063


We develop a novel technique to exploit the extensive data sets provided by underwater neutrino telescopes to gain information on bioluminescence in the deep sea. The passive nature of the telescopes gives us the unique opportunity to infer information on bioluminescent organisms without actively interfering with them. We propose a statistical method that allows us to reconstruct the light emission of individual organisms, as well as their location and movement. A mathematical model is built to describe the measurement process of underwater neutrino telescopes and the signal generation of the biological organisms. The Metric Gaussian Variational Inference algorithm is used to reconstruct the model parameters using photon counts recorded by the neutrino detectors. We apply this method to synthetic data sets and data collected by the ANTARES neutrino telescope. The telescope is located 40 km off the French coast and fixed to the sea floor at a depth of 2475 m. The runs with synthetic data reveal that we can reliably model the emitted bioluminescent flashes of the organisms. Furthermore, we find that the spatial resolution of the localization of light sources highly depends on the configuration of the telescope. Precise measurements of the efficiencies of the detectors and the attenuation length of the water are crucial to reconstruct the light emission. Finally, the application to ANTARES data reveals the first precise localizations of bioluminescent organisms using neutrino telescope data.

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N. Reeb, S. Hutschenreuter, P. Zehetner, et. al.
Tue, 20 Jul 21
34/104

Comments: N/A

Physical Constraints on Motility with Applications to Possible Life on Mars and Enceladus [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2101.06876


Motility is a ubiquitous feature of microbial life on Earth and is widely regarded as a promising biosignature candidate. In the search for motile organisms, it is therefore valuable to have rough estimates for the number of such microbes that one might expect to find in a given area or volume. In this work, we explore this question by employing a simple theoretical model that takes into account the amount of free energy available in a given environment and the energetic cost of motility. We present heuristic upper bounds for the biomass density and the number density of motile lifeforms for the Martian subsurface and the ocean of Enceladus by presuming that the motile microbes in question derive their energy from methanogenesis. We consequently demonstrate that the resultant densities might be potentially comparable to, or much lower than, those documented in various extreme environments on Earth.

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M. Lingam and A. Loeb
Tue, 19 Jan 21
30/92

Comments: 6 pages; 3 figures

Natural radioactive environments as sources of local disequilibrium for the emergence of life [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.14839


Certain subterranean environments of Earth have naturally accumulated long-lived radionuclides, such as 238U, 232Th and 40K, near the presence of liquid water. In these natural radioactive environments (NRE), water radiolysis can produce chemical species of biological importance, such as H2. Although the proposal of radioactive decay as an alternative source of energy for living systems has existed for more than thirty years, this hypothesis gained strength after the recent discovery of a peculiar ecosystem in a gold mine in South Africa, whose existence is dependent on chemical species produced by water radiolysis. In this work, we calculate the chemical disequilibrium generated locally by water radiolysis due gamma radiation and analyse the possible contribution of this disequilibrium for the emergence of life, considering conditions of early Earth and having as reference the alkaline hydrothermal vent (AHV) theory. Results from our kinetic model points out the similarities between the conditions caused by water radiolysis and those found on alkaline hydrothermal systems. Our model produces a steady increase of pH with time, which favours the precipitation of minerals with catalytic activity for protometabolism, as well as a natural electrochemical gradient in this aqueous environment. In conclusion, we described a possible free-energy conversion mechanism that could be a requisite for emergence of life in Hadean Earth.

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T. Altair, L. Sartori, F. Rodrigues, et. al.
Tue, 1 Dec 20
29/108

Comments: 51 pages, 9 figures, supplementary material included. Astrobiology

Coevolution of primitive methane cycling ecosystems and early Earth atmosphere and climate [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06433


The history of the Earth has been marked by major ecological transitions, driven by metabolic innovation, that radically reshaped the composition of the oceans and atmosphere. The nature and magnitude of the earliest transitions, hundreds of million years before photosynthesis evolved, remain poorly understood. Using a novel ecosystem-planetary model, we find that pre-photosynthetic methane-cycling microbial ecosystems are much less productive than previously thought. In spite of their low productivity, the evolution of methanogenic metabolisms strongly modifies the atmospheric composition, leading to a warmer but less resilient climate. As the abiotic carbon cycle responds, further metabolic evolution (anaerobic methanotrophy) may feed back to the atmosphere and destabilize the climate, triggering a transient global glaciation. Although early metabolic evolution may cause strong climatic instability, a low CO:CH4 atmospheric ratio emerges as a robust signature of simple methane-cycling ecosystems on a globally reduced planet such as the late Hadean/early Archean Earth.

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B. Sauterey, B. Charnay, A. Affholder, et. al.
Fri, 12 Jun 20
53/69

Comments: 32 pages, 5 figures, 1 tables, 12 Supplementary figures, published in Nature Communications

Aquatic Biospheres On Temperate Planets Around Sun-like Stars And M-dwarfs [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14387


Aquatic biospheres reliant on oxygenic photosynthesis are expected to play an important role on Earth-like planets with large-scale oceans insofar as carbon fixation (i.e., biosynthesis of organic compounds) is concerned. We investigate the properties of aquatic biospheres comprising Earth-like biota for habitable rocky planets orbiting Sun-like stars and late-type M-dwarfs such as TRAPPIST-1. In particular, we estimate how these characteristics evolve with the ambient ocean temperature ($T_W$), which is a key environmental variable. We show that many salient properties, such as the depth of the photosynthesis zone and the net primary productivity (i.e., the effective rate of carbon fixation), are sensitive to $T_W$, and eventually decline substantially as the ocean temperature is increased. We conclude by discussing the implications of our analysis for the past and future Earth, and exoplanets orbiting M-dwarfs.

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M. Lingam and A. Loeb
Mon, 1 Jun 20
5/50

Comments: 15 pages; 4 figures; 1 table

Implications of Abiotic Oxygen Buildup for Earth-like Complex Life [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2002.03248


One of the chief paradoxes of molecular oxygen (O$_2$) is that it is an essential requirement for multicellular eukaryotes on Earth while simultaneously posing a threat to their survival via the formation of reactive oxygen species. In this paper, the constraints imposed by O$_2$ on Earth-like complex life are invoked to explore whether worlds with abiotic O$_2$ inventories can harbor such organisms. By taking the major O$_2$ sources and sinks of Earth-like planets into account using a simple model, it is suggested that worlds that receive X-ray and extreme ultraviolet fluxes that are $\gtrsim 10$ times higher than Earth might not be capable of hosting complex lifeforms because the photolysis of molecules such as water may lead to significant O$_2$ buildup. Methods for testing this hypothesis by searching for anticorrelations between biosignatures and indicators of abiotic O$_2$ atmospheres are described. In the event, however, that life successfully adapts to high-oxygen environments, these worlds could permit the evolution of large and complex organisms.

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M. Lingam
Tue, 11 Feb 20
73/81

Comments: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal; 9 pages; 2 figures

Theory of chemical evolution of molecule compositions in the universe, in the Miller-Urey experiment and the mass distribution of interstellar and intergalactic molecules [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1806.06716


Chemical evolution is essential in understanding the origins of life. We present a theory for the evolution of molecule masses and show that small molecules grow by random diffusion and large molecules by a preferential attachment process leading eventually to life’s molecules. It reproduces correctly the distribution of molecules found via mass spectroscopy for the Murchison meteorite and estimates the start of chemical evolution back to 12.8 billion years following the birth of stars and supernovae. From the Frontier mass between the random and preferential attachment dynamics the birth time of molecule families can be estimated. Amino acids emerge about 165 million years after chemical elements emerge in stars. Using the scaling of reaction rates with the distance of the molecules in space we recover correctly the few days emergence time of amino acids in the Miller-Urey experiment. The distribution of interstellar and extragalactic molecules are both consistent with the evolutionary mass distribution, and their age is estimated to 108 and 65 million years after the start of evolution. From the model, we can determine the number of different molecule compositions at the time of the emergence of Earth to be 1.6 million and the number of molecule compositions in interstellar space to a mere 719 species.

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S. Kauffman, D. Jelenfi and G. Vattay
Thu, 5 Dec 19
36/71

Comments: N/A

Emergence of life in an inflationary universe [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1911.08092


Abiotic emergence of ordered information stored in the form of RNA is an important unresolved problem concerning the origin of life. A polymer longer than 40–100 nucleotides is necessary to expect a self-replicating activity, but the formation of such a long polymer having a correct nucleotide sequence by random reactions seems statistically unlikely. However, our universe, created by a single inflation event, likely includes more than $10^{100}$ Sun-like stars. If life can emerge at least once in such a large volume, it is not in contradiction with our observations of life on Earth, even if the expected number of abiogenesis events is negligibly small within the observable universe that contains only $10^{22}$ stars. Here, a quantitative relation is derived between the minimum RNA length $l_{\min}$ required to be the first biological polymer, and the universe size necessary to expect the formation of such a long and active RNA by randomly adding monomers. It is then shown that an active RNA can indeed be produced somewhere in an inflationary universe. On the other hand, $l_{\min}$ must be shorter than $\sim$20 nucleotides for the abiogenesis probability close to unity on a terrestrial planet, but a self-replicating activity is not expected for such a short RNA. Therefore, if extraterrestrial organisms of a different origin from those on Earth are discovered in the future, it would imply an unknown mechanism at work to polymerize nucleotides much faster than random statistical processes.

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T. Totani
Wed, 20 Nov 19
32/73

Comments: 11 pages, 1 figure

A Low-Profile, Self-Contained System for Atmospheric Monitoring and Mid-flight Collection of Viable Microbiological Samples at High Altitude [IMA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1908.06768


The prevalence of bacteria in the atmosphere has been well established in relevant literature, suggesting that airborne bacteria can influence atmospheric characteristics including the development of clouds. Studies have also demonstrated that the atmospheric biological profile is influenced by the underlying terrestrial biomes. An understanding of the complex interplay of factors that can influence the atmospheric biological profile, not to mention developing a biological census of the atmosphere, requires a cost-effective experimental system capable of generating reproducible results with reliable data. However, as has been demonstrated by payloads launched by space agencies such as NASA and JAXA, these payloads are both complex and cost prohibitive. This paper discusses the design and implementation of a biologically oriented experimental payload for high-altitude ballooning that is within the means of most student-run experimental programs. The payload highlighted in this presentation, PHANTOM (Probe for High Altitude Numeration and Tracking of Microorganisms, which has the goal of capturing aerial microorganisms at multiple altitudes in order to characterize the biological composition of the upper atmosphere), has undergone a number of successful flight trials, and serves to highlight the feasibility and utility of interdisciplinary projects between aerospace and the biological sciences.

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C. Singam
Tue, 20 Aug 19
70/86

Comments: AIAA Region I student conference. 7 pages, 3 figures

From cosmic explosions to terrestrial fires? [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1903.01501


Multiple lines of evidence point to one or more moderately nearby supernovae, with the strongest signal ~2.6 Ma. We build on previous work to argue for the likelihood of cosmic ray ionization of the atmosphere and electron cascades leading to more frequent lightning, and therefore an increase in nitrate deposition and in wildfires. The potential exists for a large increase in the pre-human nitrate flux onto the surface, which has previously been argued to lead to CO2 drawdown and cooling of the climate. Evidence for increased wildfires exists in an increase in soot and carbon deposits over the relevant period. The wildfires would have contributed to the transition from forest to savanna in northeast Africa, long argued to have been a factor in the evolution of hominin bipedalism.

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A. Melott and B. Thomas
Wed, 6 Mar 19
64/75

Comments: 20 pages, 3 figures. To be published in the Journal of Geology

Why planetary and exoplanetary protection differ: The case of long duration Genesis missions to habitable but sterile M-dwarf oxygen planets [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1901.02286


Time is arguably the key limiting factor for interstellar exploration. At high speeds, flyby missions to nearby stars by laser propelled wafersats taking 50-100 years would be feasible. Directed energy launch systems could accelerate on the other side also crafts weighing several tons to cruising speeds of the order of 1000\,km/s (c/300). At these speeds, superconducting magnetic sails would be able to decelerate the craft by transferring kinetic energy to the protons of the interstellar medium. A tantalizing perspective, which would allow interstellar probes to stop whenever time is not a limiting factor. Prime candidates are in this respect Genesis probes, that is missions aiming to offer terrestrial life new evolutionary pathways on potentially habitable but hitherto barren exoplanets.
Genesis missions raise important ethical issues, in particular with regard to planetary protection. Here we argue that exoplanetary and planetary protection differ qualitatively as a result of the vastly different cruising times for payload delivering probes, which are of the order of millennia for interstellar probes, but only of years for solar system bodies. Furthermore we point out that our galaxy may harbor a large number of habitable exoplanets, M-dwarf planets, which could be sterile due to the presence of massive primordial oxygen atmospheres. We believe that the prospect terrestrial life has in our galaxy would shift on a fundamental level in case that the existence of this type of habitable but sterile oxygen planets will be corroborated by future research. It may also explain why our sun is not a M dwarf, the most common star type, but a medium-sized G-class star.

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C. Gros
Wed, 9 Jan 19
31/46

Comments: in press

Climate change via co2 drawdown from astrophysically initiated atmospheric ionization? [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01995


Motivated by the occurrence of a moderately nearby supernova near the beginning of the Pleistocene, we investigate whether nitrate rainout resulting from the atmospheric ionization of enhanced cosmic ray flux could have, through its fertilizer effect, initiated carbon dioxide drawdown. Such a drawdown could possibly reduce the greenhouse effect and induce the climate change that led to the Pleistocene glaciations. We estimate that the nitrogen flux enhancement onto the surface from an event at 50 pc would be of order 10%, probably too small for dramatic changes. We estimate deposition of iron (another potential fertilizer) and find it also to be too small to be significant. There are also competing effects of opposite sign, including muon irradiation and reduction in photosynthetic yield caused by UV increase from stratospheric ozone layer depletion. We conclude that the effect may be of interest from much nearer supernovae in the geological past, but more work needs to be done to clarify the magnitude of various competing effects.

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A. Melott, B. Thomas and B. Fields
Fri, 5 Oct 18
38/53

Comments: N/A

The clock of chemical evolution [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1806.06716


Chemical evolution is essential in understanding the origins of life. We present a theory for the evolution of molecule masses and show that small molecules grow by random diffusion and large molecules by a preferential attachment process leading eventually to life’s molecules. It reproduces correctly the distribution of molecules found via mass spectroscopy for the Murchison meteorite and estimates the start of chemical evolution back to 12.8 billion years following the birth of stars and supernovae. From the Frontier mass between the random and preferential attachment dynamics the birth time of molecule families can be estimated. Amino acids emerge about 165 million years after the start of evolution. Using the scaling of reaction rates with the distance of the molecules in space we recover correctly the few days emergence time of amino acids in the Miller-Urey experiment. The distribution of interstellar and extragalactic molecules are both consistent with the evolutionary mass distribution, and their age is estimated to 108 and 65 million years after the start of evolution. From the model, we can determine the number of different molecule compositions at the time of the creation of Earth to be 1.6 million and the number of molecule compositions in interstellar space to a mere 719.

Read this paper on arXiv…

S. Kauffman, D. Jelenfi and G. Vattay
Tue, 19 Jun 18
78/91

Comments: N/A

Muon Radiation Dose and Marine Megafaunal Extinction at the end-Pliocene Supernova [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1712.09367


Considerable data and analysis support the detection of a supernova at a distance of about 50 pc, ~2.6 million years ago. This is possibly related to the extinction event around that time and is a member of a series of explosions which formed the Local Bubble in the interstellar medium. We build on the assumptions made in previous work, and propagate the muon flux from supernova-initiated cosmic rays from the surface to the depths of the ocean. We find that the radiation dose from the muons will exceed the total present surface dose from all sources at depths up to a kilometer and will persist for at least the lifetime of marine megafauna. It is reasonable to hypothesize that this increase in radiation load may have contributed to a newly documented marine megafaunal extinction at that time.

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A. Melott, F. Marinho and L. Paulucci
Fri, 29 Dec 2017
8/65

Comments: 3 figures

Terrestrial effects of moderately nearby supernovae [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1712.02730


Recent data indicate one or more moderately nearby supernovae in the early Pleistocene, with additional events likely in the Miocene. This has motivated more detailed computations, using new information about the nature of supernovae and the distances of these events to describe in more detail the sorts of effects that are indicated at the Earth. This short communication/review is designed to describe some of these effects so that they may possibly be related to changes in the biota around these times.

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A. Melott and B. Thomas
Fri, 8 Dec 17
24/70

Comments: 2 figures; to be published in Lethaia

Photobiological effects at Earth's surface following a 50 pc Supernova [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1711.00410


We investigated the potential biological impacts at Earth’s surface of stratospheric O3 depletion caused by nearby supernovae known to have occurred about 2.5 and 8 million years ago at about 50 pc distance. New and previously published atmospheric chemistry modeling results were combined with radiative transfer modeling to determine changes in surface-level Solar irradiance and biological responses. We find that UVB irradiance is increased by a factor of 1.1 to 2.8, with large variation in latitude, and seasonally at high latitude regions. Changes in UVA and PAR (visible light) are much smaller. DNA damage (in vitro) is increased by factors similar to UVB, while other biological impacts (erythema, skin cancer, cataracts, marine phytoplankton photosynthesis inhibition, and plant damage) are increased by smaller amounts. We conclude that biological impacts due to increased UV irradiance in this SN case are not mass-extinction level, but might be expected to contribute to changes in species abundances; this result fits well with species turnover observed around the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary.

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B. Thomas
Thu, 2 Nov 17
7/71

Comments: Accepted for publication in Astrobiology

From Allometry to Dimensionally Homogenous `Laws': Reformulation of the Metabolic Rate Relation [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1707.02340


Meaningful laws of nature must be independent of the units employed to measure the variables. The principle of similitude (Rayleigh 1915) or dimensional homogeneity, states that only commensurable quantities (ones having the same dimension) may be compared, therefore, meaningful laws of nature must be homogeneous equations in their various units of measurement, a result which was formalized in the $\rm \Pi$ theorem (Vaschy 1892; Buckingham 1914). However, most relations in allometry do not satisfy this basic requirement, including the `3/4 Law’ (Kleiber 1932) that relates the basal metabolic rate and body mass, which it is sometimes claimed to be the most fundamental biological rate (Brown et al. 2004) and the closest to a law in life sciences (West \& Brown 2004). Using the $\rm \Pi$ theorem, here we show that it is possible to construct a unique homogeneous equation for the metabolic rates, in agreement with data in the literature. We find that the variations in the dependence of the metabolic rates on body mass are secondary, coming from variations in the allometric dependence of the heart frequencies. This includes not only different classes of animals (mammals, birds, invertebrates) but also different exercise conditions (basal and maximal). Our results demonstrate that most of the differences found in the allometric exponents (White et al. 2007) are due to compare incommensurable quantities and that our dimensionally homogenous formula, unify these differences into a single formulation. We discuss the ecological implications of this new formulation in the context of the Malthusian’s, Fenchel’s and Calder’s relations.

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A. Escala
Tue, 11 Jul 17
71/74

Comments: Submitted. Comments are welcome (andres.escala@aya.yale.edu)

A supernova at 50 pc: Effects on the Earth's atmosphere and biota [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1702.04365


Recent 60Fe results have suggested that the estimated distances of supernovae in the last few million years should be reduced from 100 pc to 50 pc. Two events or series of events are suggested, one about 2.7 million years to 1.7 million years ago, and another may at 6.5 to 8.7 million years ago. We ask what effects such supernovae are expected to have on the terrestrial atmosphere and biota. Assuming that the Local Bubble was formed before the event being considered, and that the supernova and the Earth were both inside a weak, disordered magnetic field at that time, TeV-PeV cosmic rays at Earth will increase by a factor of a few hundred. Tropospheric ionization will increase proportionately, and the overall muon radiation load on terrestrial organisms will increase by a factor of 150. All return to pre-burst levels within 10kyr. In the case of an ordered magnetic field, effects depend strongly on the field orientation. The upper bound in this case is with a largely coherent field aligned along the line of sight to the supernova, in which case TeV-PeV cosmic ray flux increases are 10^4; in the case of a transverse field they are below current levels. We suggest a substantial increase in the extended effects of supernovae on Earth and in the lethal distance estimate; more work is needed.This paper is an explicit followup to Thomas et al. (2016). We also here provide more detail on the computational procedures used in both works.

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A. Melott, B. Thomas, M. Kachelriess, et. al.
Thu, 16 Feb 17
27/45

Comments: 5 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1605.04926

Odds for an enlightened rather than barren future [CEA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1608.05776


We are at a stage in our evolution where we do not yet know if we will ever communicate with intelligent beings that have evolved on other planets, yet we are intelligent and curious enough to wonder about this. We find ourselves wondering about this at the very beginning of a long era in which stellar luminosity warms many planets, and by our best models, continues to provide equally good opportunities for intelligent life to evolve. By simple Bayesian reasoning, if, as we believe, intelligent life forms have the same propensity to evolve later on other planets as we had to evolve on ours, it follows that they will likely not pass through a similar wondering stage in their evolution. This suggests that the future holds some kind of interstellar communication that will serve to inform newly evolved intelligent life forms that they are not alone before they become curious.

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D. Haussler
Tue, 23 Aug 16
5/51

Comments: N/A

Developing Ecospheres on Transiently Habitable Planets: The Genesis Project [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1608.06087


It is often presumed, that life evolves relatively fast on planets with clement conditions, at least in its basic forms, and that extended periods of habitability are subsequently needed for the evolution of higher life forms. Many planets are however expected to be only transiently habitable. On a large set of otherwise suitable planets life will therefore just not have the time to develop on its own to a complexity level as it did arise on earth with the cambrian explosion. The equivalent of a cambrian explosion may however have the chance to unfold on transiently habitable planets if it would be possible to fast forward evolution by 3-4 billion years (with respect to terrestrial timescales). We argue here, that this is indeed possible when seeding the candidate planet with the microbial lifeforms, bacteria and unicellular eukaryotes alike, characterizing earth before the cambrian explosion. An interstellar mission of this kind, denoted the `Genesis project’, could be carried out by a relatively low-cost robotic microcraft equipped with a on-board gene laboratory for the in situ synthesis of the microbes.
We review here our current understanding of the processes determining the timescales shaping the geo-evolution of an earth-like planet, the prospect of finding Genesis candidate planets and selected issues regarding the mission layout. Discussing the ethical aspects connected with a Genesis mission, which would be expressively not for human benefit, we will also touch the risk that a biosphere incompatibility may arise in the wake of an eventual manned exploration of a second earth.

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C. Gros
Tue, 23 Aug 16
17/51

Comments: Astrophysics and Space Science (in press)

Terrestrial Effects Of Nearby Supernovae In The Early Pleistocene [HEAP]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1605.04926


Recent results have strongly confirmed that multiple supernovae happened at distances ~100 pc consisting of two main events: one at 1.7 to 3.2 million years ago, and the other at 6.5 to 8.7 million years ago. These events are said to be responsible for excavating the Local Bubble in the interstellar medium and depositing 60Fe on Earth and the Moon. Other events are indicated by effects in the local cosmic ray (CR) spectrum. Given this updated and refined picture, we ask whether such supernovae are expected to have had substantial effects on the terrestrial atmosphere and biota. In a first cut at the most probable cases, combining photon and cosmic ray effects, we find that a supernova at 100 pc can have only a small effect on terrestrial organisms from visible light, but tropospheric ionization due to the penetration of $\geq$ TeV cosmic rays will increase by nearly an order of magnitude for thousands of years, and irradiation by muons on the ground and in the upper ocean will increase 20-fold, which will approximately triple the overall radiation load on terrestrial organisms. These effects make possible changes in climate and increased cancer and mutation rates. Further research on the effects of these changes is needed.

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B. Thomas, E. Engler, M. Kachelriess, et. al.
Wed, 18 May 16
29/67

Comments: Submitted to ApJL

Solar irradiance changes and phytoplankton productivity in Earth's ocean following astrophysical ionizing radiation events [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01816


Two atmospheric responses to simulated astrophysical ionizing radiation events significant to life on Earth are production of odd-nitrogen species, especially NO2, and subsequent depletion of stratospheric ozone. Ozone depletion increases incident short-wavelength ultraviolet radiation (UVB, 280-315 nm) and longer ( > 600 nm) wavelengths of photosynthetically available radiation (PAR, 400 -700 nm). On the other hand, the NO2 haze decreases atmospheric transmission in the long-wavelength UVA (315-400 nm) and short wavelength PAR. Here we use the results of previous simulations of incident spectral irradiance following an ionizing radiation event to predict changes in Terran productivity focusing on photosynthesis of marine phytoplankton. The prediction is based on a spectral model of photosynthetic response developed for the dominant genera in central regions of the ocean (Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus), and remote-sensing based observations of spectral water transparency, temperature, wind speed and mixed layer depth. Predicted productivity declined after a simulated ionizing event, but the effect integrated over the water column was small. For integrations taking into account the full depth range of PAR transmission (down to 0.1% of utilizable PAR), the decrease was at most 2-3% (depending on strain), with larger effects (5-7%) for integrations just to the depth of the surface mixed layer. The deeper integrations were most affected by the decreased utilizable PAR at depth due to the NO2 haze, whereas shallower integrations were most affected by the increased surface UV.

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P. Neale and B. Thomas
Fri, 8 Apr 16
32/54

Comments: in Astrobiology, Vol. 16, Num. 4, 2016

Comment on 'Investigations into the impact of astronomical phenomena on the terrestrial biosphere and climate' (arXiv:1505.07856 [astro-ph.EP]) by Fabo Feng [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1506.01626


This work by Feng and papers which published its conclusions do not cite nor do they deal with objections by the author published in 2013-2014. There are many fundamental problems. We will summarize here the principal problems, as published by Melott and Bambach which render irrelevant most of the work presented by Feng.

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A. Melott
Fri, 5 Jun 15
42/63

Comments: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1307.1884

On the possibility of cosmic ray-induced ionizing radiation-powered life in subsurface environments in the Universe [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1506.01274


Photosynthesis is a highly efficient mechanism developed by terrestrial life to utilize the energy from photons of solar origin for biological use. Subsurface regions are isolated from the photosphere, and consequently are incapable of utilizing this energy. This opens up the opportunity for life to cultivate alternative mechanisms in order to take advantage of other available energy sources. Studies have shown that in subsurface environments, life can use energy generated from geochemical and geothermal processes to sustain a minimal metabolism. Another mechanism is radiolysis, in which particles emitted by radioactive substances are indirectly utilized for metabolism. One such example is the bacterium fueled by radiation, found 2 miles deep in a South African mine, which consumes hydrogen formed from particles emitted by radioactive U, Th and K present in rock. An additional source of radiation in the subsurface environments is secondary particles, such as muons generated by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). It is a steady source of a small amount of energy, and the possibility of a slow metabolizing life flourishing on it cannot be ruled out. Muon-induced radiolysis can produce H2 which is used by methanogens for abiotic hydrocarbon synthesis. We propose three mechanisms through which GCR-induced secondary particles, which are able to penetrate in deep subsurface environments, can be utilized for biological use. (1) GCRs injecting energy in the environment through muon-induced radiolysis, (2) organic synthesis from GCR secondaries interacting with the medium and (3) direct capture of radiation with the help of pigments such as melanin. We discuss the implications of these mechanisms on finding life in the Solar System and elsewhere in the Universe.

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D. Atri
Thu, 4 Jun 15
29/60

Comments: Hypothesis paper (25 pages, 4 figures). Questions and comments are welcome. Contact: dimitra[at]bmsis.org

A possible role for stochastic radiation events in the systematic disparity between molecular and fossil dates [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.08125


Major discrepancies have been noted for some time between fossil ages and molecular divergence dates for a variety of taxa. Recently, systematic trends within avian clades have been uncovered. The trends show that the disparity is much larger for mitochondrial DNA than for nuclear DNA; also that it is larger for crown fossil dates than stem fossil dates. It was argued that this pattern is largely inconsistent with incompleteness of the fossil record as the principal driver of the disparity. A case is presented that given the expected mutations from a fluctuating background of astrophysical radiation from such sources as supernovae, the rate of molecular clocks is variable and should increase into the past. This is a possible explanation for the disparity. One test of this hypothesis is to look for an acceleration of molecular clocks 2 to 2.5 Ma due to a probable moderately nearby supernova at that time. Another is to look for reduced disparity in benthic organisms of the deep ocean.

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A. Melott
Mon, 1 Jun 15
32/62

Comments: Accepted for Earth and Life II

Solar irradiance changes and photobiological effects at Earth's surface following astrophysical ionizing radiation events [EPA]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1501.05914


Astrophysical ionizing radiation events have been recognized as a potential threat to life on Earth, primarily through depletion of stratospheric ozone and subsequent increase in surface-level solar ultraviolet radiation. Simulations of the atmospheric effects of a variety of events (such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and solar proton events) have been previously published, along with estimates of biological damage at Earth’s surface. In this work, we employed the TUV radiative transfer model to expand and improve calculations of surface-level irradiance and biological impacts following an ionizing radiation event. We considered changes in surface-level UVB, UVA, and photosynthetically active radiation (visible light) for clear-sky conditions and fixed aerosol parameter values. We also considered a wide range of biological effects on organisms ranging from humans to phytoplankton. We found that past work overestimated UVB irradiance, but that relative estimates for increase in exposure to DNA damaging radiation are still similar to our improved calculations. We also found that the intensity of biologically damaging radiation varies widely with organism and specific impact considered; these results have implications for biosphere-level damage following astrophysical ionizing radiation events. When considering changes in surface-level visible light irradiance, we found that, contrary to previous assumptions, a decrease in irradiance is only present for a short time in very limited geographical areas; instead we found a net increase for most of the modeled time-space region. This result has implications for proposed climate changes associated with ionizing radiation events.

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B. Thomas, P. Neale and B. Snyder
Mon, 26 Jan 15
39/46

Comments: In press at Astrobiology

Analysis of periodicity of extinction using the 2012 geological time scale [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/1310.4712


Analysis of two independent data sets with increased taxonomic resolution (genera rather than families) using the revised 2012 time scale reveals that an extinction periodicity first detected by Raup and Sepkoski (1984) for only the post-Paleozoic actually runs through the entire Phanerozoic. Although there is not a local peak of extinction every 27 million years, an excess of the fraction of genus extinction by interval follows a 27 million year timing interval and differs from a random distribution at the p ~ 0.02 level. A 27 million year periodicity in the spectrum of interval lengths no longer appears, removing the question of a possible artifact arising from it. Using a method originally developed in Bambach (2006) we identify 19 intervals of marked extinction intensity, including mass extinctions, spanning the last 470 million years (and with another six present in the Cambrian) and find that 10 of the 19 lie within 3 Myr of the maxima in the spacing of the 27 Myr periodicity, which differs from a random distribution at the p = 0.01 level. These 19 intervals of marked extinction intensity also preferentially occur during decreasing diversity phases of a well-known 62 Myr periodicity in diversity (16 of 19, p = 0.002). Both periodicities appear to enhance the likelihood of increased severity of extinction, but the cause of neither periodicity is known. Variations in the strength of the many suggested causes of extinction coupled to the variation in combined effect of the two different periodicities as they shift in and out of phase is surely one of the reasons that definitive comparative study of the causes of major extinction events is so elusive.

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Date added: Fri, 18 Oct 13

Liquid Metal Flow Can Be One Clue to Explain the Frequently Observed Fluid-Like Matters on Mars

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The frequently discovered flooding structure on Mars and other planets has long been an intriguing mystery remained un-disclosed so far. Considering that on Earth, quite a few low melting point liquid metals or their alloy can be candidates of fluid like matters, we proposed here that there might also exists certain liquid metal instead of water or methane alone on Mars or the like planets. Compared with water, such liquid metal would be much easier to stay at the Mars surface because of its low melting point however extremely high evaporation point. Along this theoretical route, quite a few observations on the fluid like matters in former space explorations can be well interpreted. Such hypothesis for the existence of liquid metal on Mars surface does not mean refuting the possibility of water on Mars. This new point would be helpful for planning further exploration of Mars in a sense according to the characters of liquid metal. It at least identifies one more target fluid towards either finding or denying life at outer space. Whether the planet could harbor life in some form or it reaffirms Mars as an important future destination for human exploration still needs serious but not just enthusiasm explorations.

Read this paper on arXiv…

Date added: Tue, 8 Oct 13