http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.06276
Solar active regions (ARs) play a fundamental role in driving many of the geo-effective eruptions which propagate into the Solar System. However, we are still unable to consistently predict where and when ARs will occur across the solar disk by identifying pre-emergence signatures in observables such as the Doppler velocity (without using Helioseismic methods). Here we aim to determine the earliest time at which pre-emergence signatures, specifically the Horizontal Divergent Flow (HDF), can be confidently detected using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (SDO/HMI). Initially, we follow previous studies using the thresholding method, which searches for significant increases in the number of pixels that display a specific line-of-sight velocity. We expand this method to more velocity windows and conduct a basic parameter study investigating the effect of cadence on the inferred results. Our findings agree with previous studies with $37.5$% of ARs displaying a HDF, with average lead times between the HDF and flux emergence of $58$ minutes. We present a new potential signature of flux emergence which manifests as cadence-independent transient disruptions to the amplitudes of multiple velocity windows and recover potential pre-emergence signatures for 10 of the 16 ARs studied, with lead times of 60-156 minutes. Several effects can influence both the estimated times of both HDF and flux emergence suggesting that one may need to combine Doppler and magnetic field data to get a reliable indicator of continued flux emergence.
T. Rees-Crockford, C. Nelson and M. Mathioudakis
Thu, 13 Oct 22
60/68
Comments: 19 Pages, 8 Figures, 2 Tables, 2 Supplemental Figure Sets