Tag Archives: General Economics

The Cost of Lunar Landing Pads with a Trade Study of Construction Methods [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2205.00378


This study estimates the cost of building lunar landing pads and examines whether any construction methods are economically superior to others. Some proposed methods require large amounts of mass transported from the Earth, others require high energy consumption on the lunar surface, and others have a long construction time. Each of these factors contributes direct and indirect costs to lunar activities. The most important economic variables turn out to be the transportation cost to the lunar surface and the magnitude of the program delay cost imposed by a construction method. The cost of a landing pad depends sensitively on the optimization of the mass and speed of the construction equipment, so a minimum-cost set of equipment exists for each construction method within a specified economic scenario. Several scenarios have been analyzed across a range of transportation costs with both high and low program delay costs. It is found that microwave sintering is currently the most favorable method to build the inner, high temperature zone of a lunar landing pad, although other methods are within the range of uncertainty. The most favorable method to build the outer, low temperature zone of the landing pad is also sintering when transportation costs are high, but it switches to polymer infusion when transportation costs drop below about \$110K/kg to the lunar surface. It is estimated that the Artemis Basecamp could build a landing pad with a budgeted line-item cost of \$229M assuming that transportation costs will be reduced modestly from the current rate \$1M/kg to the lunar surface to \$300K/kg. A landing pad drops to \$130M when the transportation cost drops further to \$100K/kg, or to \$47M if transportation costs fall below \$10K/kg. Ultimately, landing pads can be built around the Moon at very low cost, due to economies of scale.

Read this paper on arXiv…

P. Metzger and G. Autry
Tue, 3 May 22
45/82

Comments: 50 pages, 15 figures

Open access to orbit and runaway space debris growth [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2202.07442


As Earth’s orbits fill with satellites and debris, debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies become more likely. Runaway space debris growth, known as Kessler Syndrome, may render Earth’s orbits unusable for centuries. We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use under rational expectations with endogenous collision risk and Kessler Syndrome. When satellites can be destroyed in collisions with debris and other satellites, the open-access equilibrium manifold allows for multiple steady states. When debris can collide to produce more debris, at least one steady state may be a tipping point and Kessler Syndrome can occur along equilibrium paths. We show open access is increasingly and inefficiently likely to cause Kessler Syndrome as satellites become more profitable. Calibrated simulations reveal Kessler Syndrome is expected to occur in low-Earth orbit around 2048 under recent historical sectoral growth trends, and may occur as early as 2035 if the space economy grows consistent with projections by major investment banks. These results highlight the urgent need for modeling and policy approaches which incorporate open access and positive feedbacks in debris growth.

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A. Rao and G. Rondina
Wed, 16 Feb 22
14/69

Comments: PDF includes appendix

Cost estimation for alternative aviation plans against potential radiation exposure associated with solar proton events for the airline industry [CL]

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http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.10869


We present a systematic approach to effectively evaluate potential risk cost caused by exposure to solar proton events (SPEs) from solar flares for the airline industry. We also evaluate associated health risks from radiation, to provide relevant alternative ways to minimize economic loss and opportunity. The estimated radiation dose induced by each SPE for the passengers of each flight is calculated using ExoKyoto and PHITS. We determine a few scenarios for the estimated dose limit at 1 and 20mSv, corresponding to the effective dose limit for the general public and occupational exposure, respectively, as well as a higher dose induced an extreme superflare. We set a hypothetical airline shutdown scenario at 1mSv for a single flight per passenger, due to legal restrictions under the potential radiation dose. In such a scenario, we calculate the potential loss in direct and opportunity cost under the cancelation of the flight. At the same time, we considered that, even under such a scenario, if the airplane flies at a slightly lower altitude (from 12 to 9.5km: atmospheric depth from 234 to 365g/cm$^{2}$), the total loss becomes much smaller than flight cancelation, and the estimated total dose goes down from 1.2 to 0.45mSv, which is below the effective dose limit for the general public. In case of flying at an even lower altitude (7km: atmospheric depth 484g/cm$^{2}$), the estimated total dose becomes much smaller, 0.12 mSv. If we assume the increase of fuel cost is proportional to the increase in atmospheric depth, the increase in cost becomes 1.56 and 2.07 for the case of flying at 9.5 km and at 7 km, respectively. Lower altitude flights provide more safety for the potential risk of radiation doses induced by severe SPEs. At the same time, since there is total loss caused by flight cancelation, we propose that considering lower flight altitude is the best protection against solar flares.

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Y. Yamashiki, M. Fujita, T. Sato, et. al.
Fri, 24 Apr 20
35/63

Comments: 16 pages, 3 figures, published in Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review (The accepted version of the manuscript is uploaded in arXiv. The final published version is available in the journal website.)