http://arxiv.org/abs/2301.05757
We have re-evaluated recent studies of effects on Earth by cosmic rays (CRs) from nearby supernovae (SNe) at 100 pc and 50 pc, in the diffusive transport CR case, here including an early time suppression at lower CR energies neglected in the previous work. Inclusion of this suppression leads to lower overall CR flux at early times, lower atmospheric ionization, smaller resulting ozone depletion, and lower sea-level muon radiation dose. Differences in atmospheric impacts are most pronounced for the 100 pc case with less significant differences in the 50 pc case. We find a greater discrepancy in the modeled sea-level muon radiation dose, with significantly smaller dose values in the 50 pc case; our results indicate it is unlikely that muon radiation is a significant threat to the biosphere for SNe beyond at least 20 pc. We have also performed new modeling of effects by SNe at 20 pc and 10 pc. Overall, our results indicate that, considering only effects of SN CRs, the “lethal” SN distance may be closer to 20 pc rather than the typically quoted 8-10 pc.
B. Thomas and A. Yelland
Wed, 18 Jan 23
102/133
Comments: 21 pages, 6 figures; submitted to ApJ