A Time-Efficient, Data Driven Modelling Approach To Predict The Geomagnetic Impact of Coronal Mass Ejections [SSA]

http://arxiv.org/abs/2210.00071


Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are transient solar eruptions of magnetised plasma from the Sun’s corona. Their interactions with the geo-magnetosphere may lead to severe geomagnetic perturbations. Such space weather events pose a threat to ground- and space-based technologies thereby impacting modern societal infrastructure. To understand the physical processes behind geomagnetic storms and predict them we develop a new CME flux rope-magnetosphere interaction module using 3D magnetohydrodynamics. Our approach is relatively simpler and time-efficient compared to more complex models but performs well in estimating the strength and temporal variations of geomagnetic storms. Simulated postdictions for two contrasting coronal mass ejections from 2003 and 2006 exhibit strong linear correlation with observed Dst and SYM-H indices. This study paves the way for operationally efficient prediction of CME flux rope driven geomagnetic storms.

Read this paper on arXiv…

S. Roy and D. Nandy
Tue, 4 Oct 22
39/71

Comments: 34 Pages, 6 figures, Submitted to GRL