http://arxiv.org/abs/2107.03458
A dynamical model for large near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) is developed here to understand the occurrence rate and nature of Cretaceous-Paleogene (K/Pg) scale impacts on the Earth. We find that 16–32 (2–4) impacts of diameter $D>5$ km ($D>10$ km) NEAs are expected on the Earth in 1 Gyr, with about a half of impactors being dark primitive asteroids (most of which start with semimajor axis $a>2.5$ au). These results explain why the Chicxulub crater, the third largest impact structure found on the Earth (diameter $\simeq180$ km), was produced by impact of a carbonaceous chondrite. They suggest, when combined with previously published results for small ($D \lesssim 1$ km) NEAs, a size-dependent sampling of the main belt. We conclude that the impactor that triggered the K/Pg mass extinction $\simeq 66$ Myr ago was a main belt asteroid that quite likely ($\simeq 60$\% probability) originated beyond 2.5 au.
D. Nesvorny, W. Bottke and S. Marchi
Fri, 9 Jul 21
31/62
Comments: Icarus