http://arxiv.org/abs/1809.07961
Based on our tool for the early diagnostics of solar eruption geoeffectiveness (EDSEG tool; Chertok et al., 2013, 2015, 2017), we have analyzed space weather disturbances that occurred in early September 2017. Two flares, SOL2017-09-04T20:33 (M5.5) and SOL2017-09-06T12:02 (X9.3), accompanied by Earth-directed halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were found to be geoeffective. We extracted the associated EUV dimmings and arcades and calculated their total unsigned magnetic flux. This calculation allowed us to estimate the possible scales of the Forbush decreases (FDs) and geomagnetic storms (GMSs) in the range from moderate to strong, and they are close to the observed scales. More precisely, after the first eruption, an FD approximately equal to 2% and almost no GMS occurred because the Bz magnetic field component in front of the corresponding interplanetary CME (ICME) was northern. The stronger second eruption produced somewhat larger composite disturbances (FD ~ 9.3% and GMS with indexes Dst ~ -144 nT, Ap ~ 235) than expected (FD ~ 4.4%, Dst ~ -135 nT, Ap ~ 125) because the second ICME overtook the trailing part of the first ICME near Earth, and the resulting Bz component was more intense and southern. Both ICMEs arrived at Earth earlier than expected because they propagated in the high-speed solar wind emanated from an extended coronal hole adjacent to AR12673 along their entire path. Overall, the presented results provide further evidence that the EDSEG tool can be used for the earliest diagnostics of actual solar eruptions to forecast the scale of the corresponding geospace disturbances.
I. Chertok, A. Belov and A. Abunin
Mon, 24 Sep 18
43/50
Comments: 18 pages, 3 figures, accepted