http://arxiv.org/abs/1806.09536
Atmospheric turbulence is the one of the major limiting factors for ground-based astronomical observations. In this paper, the problem of short-term forecasting seeing is discussed. The real data that were obtained by atmospheric optical turbulence (OT) measurements above Mount Shatdzhatmaz in 2007–2013 have been analysed. Linear auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for the forecasting. A new procedure for forecasting the image characteristics of direct astronomical observations (central image intensity, full width at half maximum, radius encircling 80% of the energy) has been proposed. Probability density functions of the forecast of these quantities are 1.5–2 times thinner than the respective unconditional probability density functions. Overall, this study found that the described technique could adequately describe temporal stochastic variations of the OT power.
M. Kornilov
Tue, 26 Jun 18
40/71
Comments: N/A