http://arxiv.org/abs/2212.00839
The fireball of the first interstellar meteor, CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) (Siraj & Loeb 2019), was detected off the northern coast of Papua New Guinea. A recently announced ocean expedition will retrieve any extant fragments by towing a magnetic sled across a 10 km x 10 km area of ocean floor approximately 300 km north of Manus Island (Siraj, Loeb, & Gallaudet 2022). We formulate a model that includes both the probabilistic mass distribution of meteor fragments immediately after the fragmentation event, the ablation of the fragments, and the geographic distribution of post-ablation fragments along the ground track trajectory of the bulk fragment cloud. We apply this model to IM1 to provide a heuristic estimate of the impactor’s post-ablation fragment mass distribution, constructed through a Monte Carlo simulation. We find between ~14% and ~36% of IM1 fragments are expected to survive ablation with a mass $\geq$ .001 g, and also provide an estimation for the geographic distribution of post-ablation fragments.
A. Tillinghast-Raby, A. Loeb and A. Siraj
Mon, 5 Dec 22
40/63
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