SPARX: a modelling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Space Weather forecasting [SSA]

http://arxiv.org/abs/1409.6368


The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new operational modelling system simulating the propagation of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) from locations near the Sun to any given location in the heliosphere. The model is based on the test particle approach and is spatially 3D, thus allowing for the possibility of transport in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field. The model naturally includes the effects of perpendicular propagation due to drifts and drift-induced deceleration. The modelling framework and the way in which parameters of relevance for Space Weather are obtained within a forecasting context are described. The first results from the modelling system are presented. These results demonstrate that corotation and drift of SEP streams play an essential role in shaping SEP flux profiles.

Read this paper on arXiv…

M. Marsh, S. Dalla, M. Dierckxsens, et. al.
Wed, 24 Sep 14
47/62

Comments: Submitted to Space Weather