http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.05750
Supernova `Refsdal’, multiply imaged by cluster MACS1149.5+2223, represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a time scale that is short compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up from HST and from the Very Large Telescope. We compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the known images, even though these quantities were not used as input. This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight, cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model predictions for the other appearances of SN `Refsdal’. A future image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been too faint to be detected in archival images. The future image should be approximately one third as bright as the brightest known images and thus detectable in HST images, as soon as the cluster can be targeted again (beginning 2015 October 30). We will find out soon whether our predictions are correct.
T. Treu, G. Brammer, J. Diego, et. al.
Wed, 21 Oct 15
6/66
Comments: 24 pages, 12 figures, submitted to ApJ
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