# Planet Detection Simulations for Several Possible TESS Extended Missions [EPA]

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will perform a two-year survey of nearly the entire sky, with the main goal of detecting exoplanets smaller than Neptune around bright and nearby stars. There do not appear to be any fundamental obstacles to continuing science operations for at least several years after the two-year Primary Mission. To provide a head start to those who will plan and propose for such a mission, we present simulations of exoplanet detections in a third year of TESS operations. Our goal is to provide a helpful reference for the exoplanet-related aspects of any Extended Mission, while recognizing this will be only one part of a larger community discussion of the scientific goals. We use Monte Carlo simulations to try and anticipate the quantities and types of planets that would be detected in each of 6 plausible scenarios for a one-year Extended Mission following the two-year Primary Mission. We find that: (1) there is no sharp fall-off in the planet discovery rate in the third year; (2) the quantity of newly detected sub-Neptune radius planets does not depend strongly on the schedule of pointings; (3) an important function of an Extended Mission would be improving our ability to predict the times of future transits and occultations of TESS-detected planets.

L. Bouma, J. Winn, J. Kosiarek, et. al.
Fri, 26 May 17
-12/63

Comments: The views, opinions, assumptions, examples, and results expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the TESS Science Team, any of the authors’ employers or affiliated institutions, NASA, or any agency of the U.S. government. This article has not been endorsed or reviewed by NASA or the TESS Science Team

# No snowball on habitable tidally locked planets [EPA]

The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spin-orbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO2 outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet.

J. Checlair, K. Menou and D. Abbot
Fri, 26 May 17
-9/63

# An automatic approach to exclude interlopers from asteroid families [EPA]

Asteroid families are valuable source of information to many asteroid-related re- searches, assuming a reliable list of their members could be obtained. However, as the number of known asteroids increases fast it becomes more and more difficult to obtain robust list of members of an asteroid family. Here we are proposing a new approach to deal with the problem, based on the well known Hierarchical Clustering Method (HCM). An additional step in the whole procedure is introduced in order to reduce a so-called chaining effect. The main idea is to prevent chaining through an al- ready identified interloper. We show that in this way a number of potential interlopers among family members is significantly reduced. Moreover, we developed an automatic on-line based portal to apply this procedure, i.e to generate a list of family members as well as a list of potential interlopers. The Asteroid Families Portal (AFP) is freely available to all interested researchers.

V. Radovic, B. Novakovic, V. Carruba, et. al.
Fri, 26 May 17
10/63

Comments: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

# New candidates for active asteroids: main-belt (145) Adeona, (704) Interamnia, (779) Nina, (1474) Beira, and near-Earth (162173) Ryugu [EPA]

For the first time, spectral signs of subtle coma activity were observed for four main-belt primitive asteroids (145) Adeona, (704) Interamnia, (779) Nina, and (1474) Beira around their perihelion distances in September 2012, which were interpreted as manifestations of the sublimation of H2O ice in/under the surface matter (Busarev et al., 2015a, 2015b). We confirm the phenomenon for Nina when it approached perihelion in September 2016. At the same time, based on results of spectral observations of near-Earth asteroid (162173) Ryugu (Vilas, 2008) being a target of Japan’s Hayabusa 2 space mission, we suspected a periodic similar transient activity on the Cg-type asteroid. However, unlike the main-belt primitive asteroids demonstrating sublimation of ices close to their perihelion distances, the effect on Ryugu was apparently registered near aphelion. To explain the difference, we calculated the subsolar temperature depending on heliocentric distance of the asteroids, considered qualitative models of internal structure of main-belt and near-Earth primitive asteroids including ice and performed some analytical estimations. Presumed temporal sublimation/degassing activity of Ryugu points to the existence of a residual frozen core in its interior. It could be an indication of a relatively recent transition of the asteroid from the main asteroid belt to the near-Earth area.

V. Busarev, A. Makalkin, F. Vilas, et. al.
Fri, 26 May 17
15/63

Comments: 26 pages, 14 figures, 1 table; submitted to Icarus 2017

# On Signatures of Clouds in Exoplanetary Transit Spectra [EPA]

Transmission spectra of exoplanetary atmospheres have been used to infer the presence of clouds/hazes. Such inferences are typically based on spectral slopes in the optical deviant from gaseous Rayleigh scattering or low-amplitude spectral features in the infrared. We investigate three observable metrics that could allow constraints on cloud properties from transmission spectra, namely, the optical slope, the uniformity of this slope, and condensate features in the infrared. We derive these metrics using model transmission spectra considering Mie extinction from a wide range of condensate species, particle sizes, and scale heights. Firstly, we investigate possible degeneracies among the cloud properties for an observed slope. We find, for example, that spectra with very steep optical slopes suggest sulphide clouds (e.g. MnS, ZnS, Na$_2$S) in the atmospheres. Secondly, (non)uniformities in optical slopes provide additional constraints on cloud properties, e.g., MnS, ZnS, TiO$_2$, and Fe$_2$O$_3$ have significantly non-uniform slopes. Thirdly, infrared spectra provide an additional powerful probe into cloud properties, with SiO$_2$, Fe$_2$O$_3$, Mg$_2$SiO$_4$, and MgSiO$_3$ bearing strong infrared features observable with JWST. We investigate observed spectra of eight hot Jupiters and discuss their implications. In particular, no single or composite condensate species considered here conforms to the steep and non-uniform optical slope observed for HD 189733b. Our work highlights the importance of the three above metrics to investigate cloud properties in exoplanetary atmospheres using high-precision transmission spectra and detailed cloud models. We make our Mie data publicly available to the community.

Fri, 26 May 17
19/63

Comments: 20 pages, 7 figures; resubmitted to MNRAS after incorporating referee’s comments

# Discovery of a new branch of the Taurid meteoroid stream as a real source of potentially hazardous bodies [EPA]

Taurid meteor shower produces prolonged but usually low activity every October and November. In some years, however, the activity is significantly enhanced. Previous studies based on long-term activity statistics concluded that the enhancement is caused by a swarm of meteoroids locked in 7:2 resonance with Jupiter. Here we present precise data on 144 Taurid fireballs observed by new digital cameras of the European Fireball Network in the enhanced activity year 2015. Orbits of 113 fireballs show common characteristics and form together a well defined orbital structure, which we call new branch. We found that this branch is characterized by longitudes of perihelia lying between 155.9-160o and latitudes of perihelia between 4.2-5.7o. Semimajor axes are between 2.23-2.28 AU and indeed overlap with the 7:2 resonance. Eccentricities are in wide range 0.80-0.90. The orbits form a concentric ring in the inner solar system. The masses of the observed meteoroids were in a wide range from 0.1 g to more than 1000 kg. We found that all meteoroids larger than 300 g were very fragile, while those smaller than 30 g were much more compact. Based on orbital characteristics, we argue that asteroids 2015 TX24 and 2005 UR, both of diameters 200-300 meters, are direct members of the new branch. It is therefore very likely that the new branch contains also numerous still not discovered objects of decameter or even larger size. Since asteroids of sizes of tens to hundreds meters pose a treat to the ground even if they are intrinsically weak, impact hazard increases significantly when the Earth encounters the Taurid new branch every few years. Further studies leading to better description of this real source of potentially hazardous objects, which can be large enough to cause significant regional or even continental damage on the Earth, are therefore extremely important.

P. Spurny, J. Borovicka, H. Mucke, et. al.
Thu, 25 May 17
4/44

Comments: 24 pages, 22 figures, 5 tables. Accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysics

# Transiting Exoplanet Monitoring Project (TEMP). II. Refined System Parameters and Transit Timing Analysis of HAT-P-33b [EPA]

We present ten $R$-band photometric observations of eight different transits of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-33b, which has been targeted by our Transiting Exoplanet Monitoring Project (TEMP). The data were obtained by two telescopes at the Xinglong Station of National Astronomical Observatories of China (NAOC) from 2013 December through 2016 January, and exhibit photometric scatter of $1.6-3.0\,\rm{mmag}$. After jointly analyzing the previously published photometric data, radial-velocity (RV) measurements, and our new light curves, we revisit the system parameters and orbital ephemeris for the HAT-P-33b system. Our results are consistent with the published values except for the planet-to-star radius ratio ($R_{P}/R_{*}$), the ingress/egress duration ($\tau$) and the total duration ($T_{14}$), which together indicate a slightly shallower and shorter transit shape. Our results are based on more complete light curves, whereas the previously published work had only one complete transit light curve. No significant anomalies in Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) are found, and we place upper mass limits on potential perturbers, largely supplanting the loose constraints provided by the extant RV data. The TTV limits are stronger near mean-motion resonances, especially for the low-order commensurabilities. We can exclude the existence of a perturber with mass larger than 0.6, 0.3, 0.5, 0.5, and $0.3\,{\rm M_\oplus}$ near the 1:3, 1:2, 2:3, 3:2, and 2:1 resonances, respectively.

Y. Wang, S. Wang, H. Liu, et. al.
Thu, 25 May 17
12/44